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Zinc's relative under-performance is down to a build-up of excess metal as the global market shifts from supply shortfall to widening surplus. It now thinks zinc supply will exceed usage by a hefty 248,000 tonnes with the surplus growing to 367,000 in 2024. Zinc market balance forecasts by the ILZSGSHIFT TO SURPLUSThe zinc market's shift to surplus after two years of supply deficit is down to weaker-than-expected demand and higher-than-expected production. European demand is expected to contract by 1.8% this year due to slowing activity in the construction sector, which accounts for around half of zinc demand in the form of galvanised steel. LME zinc price, stocks and cash-3s spreadNOW YOU SEE IT...

Persons: LME, Barbara Lewis Organizations: Reuters, REUTERS, OZ Minerals, London Metal Exchange, Citi, Thomson Locations: Lawn Hill, Queensland, Europe, China, New Orleans, United States, Singapore, Malaysia's Port Klang

China has stepped up domestic output of refined zinc this year, but the Shanghai market continues to be plagued by low inventory and tight time-spreads. China's imports, exports and net trade in refined zincRETURN TO THE IMPORT MARKETChina was a consistent net importer of refined zinc over the last decade, but that changed in 2022. Shanghai zinc stocks seasonal patterns over 2020-2023LOW INVENTORYShFE registered stocks stand at a modest 43,181 tons. Sentiment, however, holds the real key to the Shanghai premium. The country's trade in refined zinc may prove a useful mirror on that question over the next few months.

Persons: Cash, It's, Jan Harvey Organizations: Share, Shanghai Futures Exchange, London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Metal, Citi, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Eritrea's, Asmara, Eritrea, China, Shanghai, Europe, Turkey, U.S, Antwerp, Singapore, Malaysia's Port Klang, Kaohsiung, Guangdong, London

☆ Column: South Korea's Gwangyang is the new LME aluminium battleground
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Andy Home | Thomson Reuters | Senior Metals Columnist Who Previously Covered Industrial Metals Markets For Metals Week | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

LONDON, Aug 29 (Reuters) - The South Korean port of Gwangyang has emerged as the new hub for storing London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium. Another 54,000 metric tons of aluminium have arrived in the intervening week, promising more turns of the storage carousel. LME aluminium stocks at Gwangyang and Port KlangGWANGYANG GRABS THE SPOTLIGHTA total 198,125 metric tons of aluminium were warranted at LME warehouses in Gwangyang in the first quarter of this year, most of it arriving in four single-day clips. Gwangyang LME aluminium stocks, arrivals and drawdownsRUSSIAN METAL NOW DOMINATESThe competition to store LME aluminium during periods of weak demand is not new. The Gwangyang aluminium storage wars may just be starting.

Persons: Gwangyang, ISTIM, Henry Bath, Sharon Singleton Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Glencore, ISTIM, Pac Global Services, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Gwangyang, Malaysia's Port Klang, Port, Rotterdam, Busan, South Korea, Port Klang, Malaysian, Detroit, Vlissingen, ISTIM

The great destock has resulted in a significantly slimmed-down LME warehouse network. The number of exchange-registered warehouse units has fallen by 151 over the last two years. LME storage space at the latter has grown by 35,000 square metres to 249,000 since the end of September last year. LME warehouse operator Istim has been expanding its presence, listing 24 units over the last year. But it's decidedly good news for LME warehouse operators.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, It's, Kloosterboer, Istim, Jane Merriman Organizations: London, Halley Metals, Pac Global Services, Infinity Logistics, HK, Rotterdam, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Krasnoyarsk, Siberian, Detroit, COVID, Ukraine, Spain, Antwerp, Vlissingen, Rotterdam, KOREA, Singapore, Malaysia's Port Klang, Busan, Incheon, Gwangyang, LME, Port Klang, China, United States, Europe

LME three-month zinc hit a near three-year low of $2,215 per metric ton in May. LME zinc price stocks and spreadsSQUEEZE DRAWS OUT HIDDEN METALThe trigger for the current spate of arrivals in the LME warehouse system appears to have been a sharp contraction in short-dated time-spreads earlier this month. If so, the game is on in Singapore, which has accounted for all the recent arrivals bar 1,000 metric tons at Malaysia's Port Klang. A total 31,500 metric tons of zinc were warranted in the city in July along with 5,125 metric tons of lead and 625 metric tons of tin. In the interim, there is plenty of potential for more metal to head towards LME storage sheds.

Persons: Ilya Naymushin, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, London Metal Exchange, Citibank, Low, Study, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Angara, Novoangars, Russia, Singapore, Malaysia's Port Klang ., East Asia, China, Europe, Ireland

Metal has been arriving almost daily in response to a sharp squeeze across the front part of the LME tin curve. LME and ShFE tin stocksLME SQUEEZE, BUT NO PHYSICAL TIGHTNESSThe tightness on the LME tin contract does not seem to have reflected any shortage of tin in the physical market. The LME squeeze appears to have been more a clash of positioning in what can at times be a relatively illiquid market. Fund positioning on the LME tin contractSUPPLY DISRUPTION LOOMSWhile tin supply has recovered from early-year disruption in Indonesia and Peru, a new threat is now looming. From the start of next month, all tin mining will be suspended in the Wa region of Myanmar.

Persons: It's, Jan Harvey Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, U.S, Fastmarkets, Fund, United Wa State Army, International Tin Association, Yinman, Yunnan Tin Company, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Myanmar, Malaysia's Port Klang, Singapore, Rotterdam, Antwerp, Italian, Genoa, Trieste, Spanish, Bilbao, Baltimore, U.S, Midwest, COVID, Indonesia, Peru, Wa, Guangxi, Mongolia, Yunnan, China

LONDON, June 1 (Reuters) - The London Metal Exchange (LME) is once again looking to shine more light on what lies in the shadows of its warehousing system. The exchange's daily stocks reports offer a rare hard data point in a murky statistical landscape for metal traders. LME stocks are flatlining but is this down to the market or changed market behaviour? Traders will game any system they come up against but the current LME stocks reporting regime makes it too easy. Restoring trust in exchange stocks reporting is a key step in winning back the broader confidence of the market.

Persons: it's, Mark Potter Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Hong Kong Exchanges, HK, Shanghai Futures, Traders, CME, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Malaysia's Port Klang, Singapore, Shanghai

Aluminium will be hardest hit with penal tariffs of 200% on imports of Russian metal, effective March 10, and imports of any third-country product containing Russian metal, effective April 10. This sort of "super contango" is the market's cry for financiers to pick up spare metal, particularly Russian metal. The Gwangyang deliveries are reported to be Russian aluminium being delivered by Glencore (GLEN.L), which has a long-term off-take deal with Rusal. The cash-to-threes time-spread will be a litmus test of financing appetite for Russian aluminium over the coming period. The only get-out for supplier nations is if they too impose minimum 200% tariffs on their own Russian aluminium imports.

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